Topic 2.5

Essential Knowledge

The demographic transition model can be used to explain population change over time.  The epidemiological transition explains causes of changing death rates.  

1. The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) 

Copy this chart into your notes.

Definition: A model that shows how population growth rates change as societies industrialize and develop. 

Stages: 

1. Stage 1: Pre-Industrial
   • High birth rates (lack of family planning, need for farm labor). 
   • High death rates (disease, famine, poor medicine). 
   • Population growth: very low. 
   • Example: No modern country fully in this stage today. 
2. Stage 2: Early Industrial
   • Birth rates remain high. 
   • Death rates drop due to better food supply, sanitation, medicine. 
   • Population growth: very rapid. 
   • Example: Sub-Saharan Africa, Afghanistan. 
3. Stage 3: Late Industrial
   • Birth rates decline (urbanization, education, family planning, women in workforce). 
   • Death rates remain low. 
   • Population growth: slows down. 
   • Example: Mexico, India (transitioning). 
4. Stage 4: Post-Industrial
   • Low birth and death rates. 
   • Population growth: stable or slow. 
   • Example: U.S., France. 
5. Stage 5 : Declining
   • Very low birth rates, higher death rates. 
   • Population growth: decline. 
   • Example: Japan, Germany, some Eastern European countries. 

2. The Epidemiological Transition 

Definition: Explains causes of death that change as countries move through the DTM. 

Stages: 

1. Stage 1: Pestilence & Famine
   • Infectious diseases (plague, smallpox). 
   • Accidents and animal attacks. 
2. Stage 2: Receding Pandemics
   • Improved sanitation, medicine reduce widespread disease. 
   • Life expectancy rises. 
3. Stage 3: Degenerative & Chronic Diseases
   • Fewer infectious diseases. 
   • More deaths from chronic illnesses (cancer, heart disease). 
4. Stage 4: Delayed Degenerative Diseases
   • Longer life expectancy due to better medicine. 
   • Lifestyle-related diseases (obesity, diabetes). 
5. Stage 5 (theoretical)
   • Reemergence of infectious diseases (antibiotic resistance, pandemics like COVID-19). 

3. Applications 

• DTM: Helps predict future population growth and policy needs. 
• Epidemiological transition: Helps governments plan for healthcare systems and public health responses. 

Exam Tips: 

• Know what happens to birth & death rates at each DTM stage. 
• Understand that the epidemiological transition links to mortality causes. 
• Be able to apply real-world country examples to each stage. 

Contextualization

Video #1: Stages of the DTM 

This video breaks down what the Demographic Transition Model is, why we use it, and what data it helps us to understand / analyze.  

Video #2: Khan Academy on the DTM 

This is another helpful video doing a simple breakdown of the DTM 

Interactive Exploration #1: Mapping the DTM  

Use ArcGIS to explore the DTM of countries around the world.  

LINK: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=1553c2f234b74879b29b0f823df85196

In Practice

Essential Question 

Explain theories of population growth and decline 

Conceptual Analysis Questions  

1. Describe why we use the demographic transition model.  
2. What are the 5 stages of the DTM? 
3. Identify 3 factors that may impact the DTM of industrialized nations.  
4. Compare a country that is in stage 2 of DTM to stage 5 of DTM. Discuss two factors that may contribute to the DTM of each. 

Vocab Review  

Provide a shorthand working definition for each of the following terms. This means it needs to be in YOUR OWN WORDS. 

1. Birth Deficit                                                    
2. Dependent Population 
3. Crude birth rate 
4. Demographic Transition Model   

MCQ:  

(You only need to write the letter for the answer you select). 

Which of the following best explains why countries in Stage 2 of the demographic transition model experience rapid population growth? 

A. Falling birth rates and high death rates 
B. High birth rates and falling death rates 
C. Falling birth rates and falling death rates 
D. High birth rates and high death rates 
E. Falling death rates and emigration 

In Stage 3 of the epidemiological transition, the leading causes of death are most likely to be: 

A. Infectious diseases and famine 
B. Chronic illnesses such as cancer and cardiovascular disease 
C. Malnutrition and plague 
D. Accidents and warfare 
E. Pandemics such as smallpox or cholera 

Japan is facing a shrinking population due to low fertility and a high proportion of elderly citizens. Which stage of the demographic transition does Japan best represent?

A. Stage 1 
B. Stage 2 
C. Stage 3 
D. Stage 4 
E. Stage 5